The Applications Of Technology In The First Decade Of The TwentyFirst Century

The Applications of Technology in the First Decade of the Twenty-First Century

The Applications of Technology in
the First Decade of the Twenty-First Century

A quote I heard many times when I was in
high school and which I now know traces back to Sir Francis Bacon, one
of our earliest scientist or philosophers as they were then called, is
the statement "Knowledge Is Power." Today, I believe that the fuller,
more correct statement is to say, "the application of knowledge is power."

The study of science, and technology subjects will broader our opportunities
in life. As we continue to advance to the 21st century- now lesser
than 30 days away-we are well aware that technology is possibly the hottest
industrial commodity around the world today. In the years ahead,
it will be an increasingly critical factor in determining the success or
failure of businesses. It is the fuel many of us are looking at to
help us win this race to the 21st century. To do that, we should
make technology matter. In this paper I am going to share my technology
forecasts. I try to focus on my new forecasts a decade into the future
- the first decade of the 21st century, because that is how far most businesses
need to be looking ahead.

There has never been a neutral or value-free,
technology. All technologies are power. They evoke economic and social
consequences in direct proportion to their dislocation of the existing
economy and its institutions.

I believe that technologies such as: biotechnology
and genetic engineering, intelligent materials, the miniaturization of
electronics, and smart manufacturing systems, and controls, will be the
hottest technologies in the next decade. I am going to put together
a list of what I think as the top ten innovative products that will result
from those technologies.

Number one on the list is something we
call genetic. There are pharmaceutical products that will come from
the massive genetic research going on around the world today. In
ten years, we will have new ways to treat many of our ills - from allergies
to ADIS. We may see the discovery of new methods of treatment for
various types of cancer, for multiple sclerosis, osteoporoses, Lou Gehrig's
and Alzheimer's disease, to name just a few.

The biotechnology frontier, especially
developments in the field of genetic, promises- and to some degree has
already archived - a revolution in agriculture and human health care.

But proving the means to develop plant species that are more disease-and-pest-resistant,
more tolerant of drought, and able to grow during extended periods of adverse
conditions. These technologies will very likely provide future increasing
in agricultural productivity. So far, these techniques have not add
much to world food production; recent grow has come primarily from increasing
acreage in production, in response to higher grain prices. However,
further expansion of productive land is limited, and the increased application
of fertilizer appears to be reaching a point of diminishing returns.

Therefore, increased agricultural productivity from this new field could
be essential to feed the growing population. The mapping of human
and plant genomes, a process already well underway, will provide greatly
increased knowledge of genetic processes and, to some extend, information
about how to control them. For humans, this will provide the means
to deal with diseases that have genetic origins or result from man functioning
of genetic material in the body. These diseases include potentially:
cancer, cystic fibrosis, Gaucher's, hemophilia, rheumatoid arthritis, AIDS,
hypercholesterolemia, and many others. Furthermore, genome analysis
of an individual can indicate propensity to diseases whose symptoms have
not yet been manifested. Scientists believe that many psychological
and behavior attributes can be genetically controlled and therefore subject
to diagnosis and eventually, for aberrant conditions, corrected. Such uses
of this technology, of courses, raise serious social and ethical questions
that must be considered. Other applications of biotechnology might
produce novel protein for food replacing meat, stimulate awareness and
evaluation of microbial threats (including archaea, ancient bacteria, being
perhaps more adaptable and potentially hazardous than was previous thought),
and creation of plantation to produce and distribute biological products
in the ocean. The process of cloning was perfected; evidence by the
fact that in 1997 a sheep was successfully cloned in Scotland. Hence,
biotechnology could eventually eliminate food shortages, improve health,
and extend life expectancy.

Number two on the list is the personalized
computer. The personal computer now sitting on our desk will be replaced
by a very powerful, personalized computer. It will be able to send
and receive wireless data. It will recognize your voice and follow
your voice commands. It will include a variety of security and service
tools that will make the computer fit your own individual needs.

When we turn on our personalized computer the intelligent agents built
into it might automatically show us high-lights and stories from last night's
football game. It could display the current stock report on your
own portfolio and ask it you would like to make any changes. It would
give us a traffic report for our normal commute to work and suggest an
alternate, if necessary. Finally, it may let us know what the lunch
specials are at our favorite restaurants and ask if we would like to make
reservations.

The third product on my list is the multi-fuel
automobile. In ten years, our cars will have to meet even stricter
requirements for emissions and efficiency. And to do that, we are
going to see a gradual shift to other fuel and power sources. Barring
a major oil crisis, we don't see a rapid shift to those alternatives.

The internal combustion engine will still have a major place in ten years.

But we will see an increase in vehicles running on energy sources like
batteries, kinetic energy, fuel cells, and hybrid sources. At first,
these will be used in low-weight vehicles that typically travel short distances.

But as these alternative- powered vehicles are introduced into the general
population, many of our experts believe that they will likely run on a
combination of fuels - like reformulated gasoline, electricity, and compressed
natural gas.

The fourth product is the next generation
television set. Ninety-nine percent of American homes have televisions,
and over the next decade, we will be replacing them. These new television
sets will be wide-screen, digital, high-definition models with extremely
sharp clarity. Many will be so flat that we will hang them on the
wall much like a large painting. Eventually, these televisions will
merge with the personalized computer I mentioned earlier.

Of course, we are going to have to pay
for all these wonderful products, and we will probably be doing that will
the fifth item on the list, electronic cash. We will be using electronic
money for everything from buying soda in a vending machine to making an
international transaction over our computer. In ten years, our pocket
might not jingle, because credit-card-sized smart cards will have all but
replaced our cash and keys. At colleges, we will developed a system
that will allow students to pay their tuition, sign up for classes, download
textbooks onto their computer, do their laundry, enter their dorm, and
order a pizza, all with one smart card. That card, of course, will
be directly linked to their parents' bank account!

The next product on my list is the home
health monitor. These devices will be inexpensive, simple-to-use, and non-invasive
(which basically means they won't puncture our skin). We will use
them to monitor our health conditions right at home. They will be able
to track a variety of our physical functions - like liver, levels of cholesterol,
triglycerides, sugar, hormones, water, salt, and potassium. Monitoring
our total health will be as simple as keeping track of our weight today.

The future industrial applications of biology and computing will allow
more people than ever before to participate in creating imaginative service,
to build new markets and to generate personal wealth.

Number seven on the list is another one
for our cars. It is smart maps and global positioning systems.

Already, we can get a global positioning system in our cars, and it will
show us where we are on a map and plot routes. But it won't give
us any information about what's going on around us. That is what's
going to be different in ten years. We will be combining global position
system with the traffic management infrastructure to help manage traffic
flow. So, our dashboard map will show us where traffic problems are, and
it will plot the best rout around them.

We will also be using global positioning
systems to help stop crime by giving us the power to monitor the location
of our cars and other valuables. And we will be able to follow the exact
location of our most precious valuable. Parents will be able to follow
the location of their children as they walk home from school.

The eighth product on my list is also one
we might have in our cars, and we might also have it our office buildings,
pipelines, airplanes, and even our sports equipments. These are new,
smart materials that will give off warnings when they detect excessive
stress.

Materials in bridges or airplanes, for
instance, could send a signal to a central operator when they detect stress,
and that operator could send a return signal for the materials to respond
to the stress. Automobile parts could give us a similar warning when
they are approaching the point of breakdown.

What is really amazing is that these materials
will be designed with sensors built into the molecular structure of material.

And, not too far in the future, they will be inexpensive enough to be in
products all around us.

Ninth on my list are anti-aging and weight-control
products. That is something we would like to see. Over
the next decade, we will see the development of a host of high-tech weight-control
and anti-aging products for all the aging baby boomers. Unfortunately,
no Fountain of Youth is on the horizon. If it was, I would be back
in the lab working on it myself. Nevertheless, new products will
make aging a little less traumatic. In fact, we think technology
will allow us to look forward to active and comfortable retirements well
into our 80s.

These new products may include: weight-control
drugs that use the body's natural weight-control mechanism, wrinkle creams
that actually work foods with enhanced nutrients, and an effective cure
for baldness.

The final item on my list is not technically
a single, specific product. It is more a trend that will change the way
we obtain many products, especially computers and major household appliances.

Within the next decade, we will begin to lease these products rather than
buy them.

Already, some utilities are developing
programs that would allow you to lease expensive appliances (like water
heaters) that use their respective sources of power. The trend for
utilities is that over the next several years they will transform into"comfort companies." Instead of selling you a furnace, for
instance, they well sell you the comfort of maintaining the proper temperature
in every room in your house.

Those are my predictions. But what
may be even more important are the lessons we have learned as we've put
together the forecasts. Three of those lessons are particularly noteworthy.

They apply to business decisions that leaders in any industry make in this
race to the 21st century.

The first lesson we learned is that we
have to be more aggressive than ever in tracking technology. Technology
is growing and spreading around the world faster than zebra muscles in
the Great Lakes. Historically, the United States has taken the entrepreneurial
lead in developing new technologies. Biotechnology is a good example.

But today, that entrepreneurial spirit is spreading around the global,
and hot new technologies are growing everywhere.

But here is the problem: That makes
our jobs even more challenging, because: one more technology means increased
competitive pressure. And two more technology means it will become
harder and harder and harder to identify and keep track of the specific
developments they can make a real difference for us, or our competitor.

I mention that the increased emphasis on
time-to-market has been one of the big competitive change in the R &

D (Research and Development) over the pass twenty years. We see it
every day in the United States. Just recently, a new toothbrush was
developed for Teledyne Waterpik five times faster than any other one of
the market. Another example is Battlle company, developed the coating
that was the key ingredient for the next-generation interactive globe.

These were completely new developments, but the company had to take them
from the idea stage to the store shelf in a year or less-and, of course,
in time for the Christmas buying reason. Therefore, time-to-market
is the key competitive factor.

Of course, to get new products out on the
market quickly, we have to be able to identify and acquire the key developments
in today's widespread sea of technology.

The second lesson is one that folks in

Ames may be as familiar with as we are in Chicago: We'll go crazy
trying to predict ISU-Illinois basketball games. In other words,
stick to what you know - and team up with people who know the rest.

Companies which have business in technology, especially technology in several
key markets, are often comfortable making predictions. We cannot
predict who is going to win Olympic medals, but we can forecast how technology
will change the Olympic games over the next twenty years.

Even thought my dorms sits practically
across the street from ISU, and I can see Hilton Coliseum form my room
window, there is no was I am going to try to predict what might happen
when ISU meets up with Illinois.

And with technology and global markets
expanding in nearly every conceivable field, industry's facing a similar
challenge. It's getting harder ad harder to know everything we need
to know about every aspect of our business.

Today, for more and more companies, the
answer is the alliance. Companies are focusing their internal efforts
on their own core competencies, and they are developing alliances with
other organizations to bring in technology related to their business.

Through these partnerships, they are gaining access to new technologies
and world-class scientist and engineers - and at the same time reducing
costs.

Over the next ten to fifteen years, we
are going to see business going one step further. This movement toward
more technology alliances and partnerships is really just a transition.

Basically, we are going to see the emergence of the virtual company and
the total R & D alliance. A company might maintain a vice president
of technology to manage a network of R & D alliances with supplies,
universities, and R & D organizations. Maybe it would have a
staff of its own scientists and engineers housed right in one or more of
those other organizations. This type of setup could be the ultimate
way for a company to focus its sources on its core business and still be
able to access the latest technology at the least cost.

That brings me to the third and final lesson
about the race to the 21st century. So far, I've mentioned scanning for
technology and building alliances. The third point refers to making
technology matter.

As I mentioned above, technology alone
is not the fuel that can give us the lead in this race we are all in.

There were many amazing technologies that did not make our top-ten list.

They were fascinating to dream about. But that does not mean they
would lead to valuable products.

And it gets even more complex, because
many of these technologies will merge and open up vast new areas for growth.

For instance, when we cross biotechnology and advanced electronic, that
opens up a whole new field of biologically based electronics. Will
we be growing organic computer chips?

Many, if not most, of tomorrow's top products
will come from this merging of two or more technologies. Mastering
this vast web of technology will be a necessary step in winning the race
to the 21st century and beyond. But it won't be sufficient.

The companies that will win that race
are the companies that will be able to anticipate market forces and acquire
incorporate the right technology into their business.

We need to combine a savvy understanding
of market forces with a through knowledge of available and potential technology.

That combination will be the fuel that powers us to develop the hottest
products of tomorrow.

Innovative thinking, powered by advanced
technology, fueled by consumer demand, driven by responsibility and common
sense will allow us taking the lead on preserving the environment and keeping
customer priorities front and center. But taking that type of initiative
to link technology to the marketplace we can use technology to do more
than just improve efficient. Our goal should be to capture and use
technology to gain value-and grab a competitive edge.

The story with Teledyne WaterPik's SenSonic
toothbrush I mentioned earlier is one of the best recent examples of a
company using that combination of market awareness and technology initiative
to grab a competitive edge. They are using technology and market
awareness to provide their customers with a more valuable product.

And that is how they are working to win the race to the 21st century.

I have made a lot of predictions about
technology and about this race that we are all in. But still, there
is really only one prediction that I can guarantee. It is that market
and technology forces will continue to transform industry, and we will
all have to keep up with them if we want to succeed.

We will all have to be futurists.

Each business will have to develop its own forecast of leading technology
and market trends that will impact the company in the decade ahead.

And, they will have to continually monitor and revise that forecast and
their own technology strategies.

Technology alone will not secure our success.

But focusing on the future with on eye on the marketplace and the other
on technology trends- that is what will put us in the fast lane to the

21st century.

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